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明天早上悉尼时间十一.30的澳洲GDP数据年度增长为2.3%， 与预计的2.6%相差较远，致使澳币上涨近100点。 下列是FOREX.com剖析师Chris Tedder的剖析，请做参考。有问题请分割我02 80305003.谢谢。
Australian growth failed to meet expectations last quarter which resulted in a sell-off in the Australian dollar. Third-quarter GDP expanded 0.6% over the quarter and 2.6% y/y, missing expected increases of 0.7% q/q and 2.6% y/y respectively. Second quarter growth was revised higher to 0.7% from 0.6% q/q but year-on-year growth to Q2 was revised down to 2.4% from 2.6%. Overall, the figures cast further doubt over the strength of the economy during a fragile time, thus they may increase the Reserve Bank of Australia’s motivation to lower interest rates further.
What does this mean for interest rates in Australia?
The RBA is expecting slightly below trend growth but this latest set of data casts even more doubt over growth figures going forward. There was speculation prior to today’s data that growth would be even higher than expected due to some positive economic numbers for the quarter, but it clearly wasn’t enough. Our biggest concern is that growth may slow further next year due to a weak labour market and an inability of parts of the economy to meaningfully respond to lower interest rates. This could result in the RBA lowering rates further to support growth. However, this could depend on the value of the Australian dollar.
The Aussie
The Australian dollar is an integral part of the RBA’s decision making process. A high currency can be very detrimental to growth and can limit the effectiveness of the RBA’s massive easing cycle. Yet, the RBA can use the threat of lower rates, or simply talk down the Aussie for that matter, to try and lower the exchange rate. Give the effectiveness of the RBA’s recent attempts to talk down the currency, the bank may continue to favour this approach against becoming more dovish. The effectiveness of this approach, therefore, may determine whether the bank starts easing again or not.
Source: FOREX.com, Bloomberg
Thanks,
Chris
Chris Tedder | Research Analyst | FOREX.com
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