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this link to reference the article - http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/2fc196 ... .html#ixzz1Gf1Qwh5l
Investors reconsider outlook for uranium
By Javier Blas, Co妹妹odities Editor
Published: March 15 20十一 08:49 | Last updated: March 15 20十一 08:49
The cost of uranium is a barometer of the popularity of the nuclear power industry. And as the esteem in atomic energy now plunges, so it is the price of the co妹妹odity.
铀的价钱是核电行业受欢送的晴雨表。该资料的价钱跟着对原子动力当下认可水平的骤降而降落。
In 2007-08, as oil prices soared towards an all-time high, the nuclear industry saw a renaissance that lifted the price of uranium to a record of $136 a pound.
在2007年至2008年间，跟着石油价钱涨到史上最高的时分，核能行业见证了一次振兴，铀价涨到创纪录的136美元一磅。
Uranium prices fell sharply afterwards on the back of fresh supplies and the drop in oil prices during the global financial crisis. But even so, prices were at historically high levels. The most co妹妹only traded form of uranium rose last month to a 35-month high of $73 a pound, sharply higher than the $20 of the early 2000s.
在寰球经济危机的期间，在新的供给 和油价回落的配景下，铀的价钱跌得很厉害。但即使如斯，价钱仍是处于历史上较高的程度。买卖中最多见的铀的品种，在上个月升到35个月以来新高，73美元一磅，远高于2000年终的20美元。
But as the popularity of the nuclear industry comes into question following Japan’s atomic crisis, prices have moved sharply lower. In the thinly traded spot market, uranium plunged on Monday by 10 per cent to $61.49 a pound, according to MF Global, a broker. Some analysts see prices falling a further 20 per cent in the next few weeks and months, dragging down miners such as Cameco of Canada – whose shares fell 十二.7 per cent in Toronto on Monday – and Areva of France – down 9.6 per cent in Paris. Shares in Uranium One, Canada’s second-largest producer, tumbled almost 28 per cent on Monday. Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton, two of the world’s largest miners by market capitalisation, are also big uranium producers.
然而跟着日来源根基子危机，原子能行业的欢送水平遭到质疑。据买卖代理商MF Global称，在买卖惨然的即期市场，铀的价钱在周一狂泻10%，跌到61.49美元一磅。一些剖析师预测在将来几周或几月中，价钱会持续上涨20%，会拖累采矿公司，好比加拿大的Cameco，周一的时分该公司的股票在多伦多上涨十二.7%。法国的Areva在巴黎的股票也上涨9.6%。加拿大第二大出产商Uranium One的股票在周一狂泻简直28%。Rio Tinto 和BHP Billiton，按市值为世界上最大的两个采矿公司，也是很大的产铀的公司。
Is the drop justified? For sure, demand is going to be lower this year and potentially next year. Japan accounts for almost 10 per cent of global uranium consumption and a fifth of the country’s nuclear power plants are down. Some of the reactors are unlikely to restart after suffering significant damage. Worse, Tokyo is likely to order stoppages at unaffected plants this year for security checks, further reducing consumption.
这类上涨公道吗？固然公道，需要将在往年，不排除明年都会降落。日本占领寰球铀损耗量的10%，而日本核电厂的五分之一会封闭。某些反映堆在阅历过微小毁坏后，无奈再次启动。更蹩脚的是，日本可能会要求中止未受影响的核电厂运转，以做平安反省，进一步升高损耗。
More broadly, blanket coverage of the nuclear crisis in the west is set to catalyse public opposition against the extension of the life of old plants – some of them about 40 years old – and the building of new reactors. The rosy forecasts of dozens of new reactors in Europe in the next two decades are unlikely to come to fruition. Popular opposition does not derail the plans for new reactors, but construction is likely to be delayed, in some cases significantly, as policymakers demand more safety.
更普遍地，在东方对核危机的片面报导，势必增进大众支持某些大约40年之久的旧核电厂的持续使用，也会支持建造新的核反映堆。在将来20年中，在欧洲建设几十个新反映堆的美妙向往也会变为泡影。大众的支持不会搅扰新的反映堆建设方案，然而更首要的是，由于决策者要求更多的平安性，建造颇有可能被推延。
The key for the price of uranium is not in Europe or the US, however. As in many other co妹妹odities markets, developing countries such as China will be far more important. Beijing plans to construct as many as 187 reactors to add to its exisiting 13, according to the World Nuclear Association. CRU, a leading co妹妹odities consultancy, said in a comprehensive report published before the Japanese earthquake that Chinese demand for uranium would quadruple in the next decade. By 2030, China will surpass the US as the world’s largest consumer. Traditionally, uranium demand has been concentrated in the US, France and Japan.
但是，取决铀价的症结其实不在欧洲或者美国。许多其余的商品市场，好比中国这样的开展中国度将变得相当首要。据世界核能组织称，北京方案在原有13个反映堆的根底上，再建造187个核反映堆。CRU，一个当先的商品征询事务所，在日当地震前的一份详实的讲演中称，中国对铀的需要将在下一个十年翻4番。在2030年前，中国将超出美国跃居世界最大的铀损耗国。传统上，铀的需求集中于美国，法国和日本。
Jerry Grandey, Cameco chief executive, tried to convey that sentiment on a hastily arranged conference call late on Monday as the share price of his company plunged. “Some people have questioned whether the nuclear renaissance will survive this natural disaster,” he said. “Growth in nuclear capacity in China, India, Korea and elsewhere ... adds tremendous momentum and we expect it will continue.”
Cameo首席履行官Jerry Grandey，跟着其公司股价的跳水，试图在周一晚间仓皇举办的记者接待会上，传递这样一种调调，他说：“有些人曾经质疑原子能的复苏能否挺过天然灾难。中国，印度以及其余中央的核能的增长，添加了微小的能源，咱们预计会继续上来。”
He may be right over the long term, but in the short term, investors are likely to vote with their feet and continue selling uranium – and the miners that produce it。
短暂看，他或许是对的，然而短时间内投资者可能其实不赞同，会持续发售铀，和产铀的矿产公司。 |
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